Financial markets in uncertain times often bounce around. And so after huge rises on Monday today saw huge plunges.
I think investors have realised that although total economic collapse has been averted by the bank bailout, we are still going to face a serious worldwide recession.
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
Radical new thinking?
Tuesday, 14 October 2008
Number 1
Shiva is the Hindu god of destruction. Or more precisely his role is to destroy the world in order to transform it.
But this isn't a religious blog. This blog will chart the effects of the credit crunch on the world around us. Right now governments around the world are preparing to nationalise banks and pump billions more into guaranteeing their loans. If they don't do it then the entire western economic system will collapse. And the lifetime of this blog will be very short.
I'm assuming that won't happen. But I'm also assuming that this isn't going to be some kind of magic wand which eliminates the effects of the vast asset bubble created by debt over the last few years. In fact, I reckon that here in Britain, and in many other countries, we are going to suffer a serious economic recession. Jobs, companies, and livelihoods are going to be destroyed. But hopefully we will emerge transformed.
It's 21 days until the US presidential election. Barack Obama is currently the favourite, having a big lead in both national and battleground polls. If he wins he's going to become the first Democratic president since Bill Clinton. Moreover, he's going to have a Democrat Congress and should therefore be able to push through legislation in a way which Clinton couldn't.
Now I'm not saying that Obama is going to lead us into a bright new dawn (although listening to some of his speeches might lead you to think so). In fact he is going to have to wrestle with some huge economic problems. If he does what John McCain wants him to do and balance the budget then we're all screwed. But if he engages in good old-fashioned Keynesian economics and spends on useful things (infrastructure and education for instance) then the US economy should get back on its feet eventually. Nevertheless, the US is unlikely to remain the world's hyper-power. The rise of China, India, Brazil and others will eliminate all that. What will that do for US self-image? How will the world balance of power change as a result and what will it mean?
And here in Britain Gordon Brown currently appears revived in the opinion polls though is still far behind David Cameron. Will we get a Conservative government? Or will Brown be able to win an election in the face of a recession?
Most interestingly of all, how will we as individuals cope with a serious economic downturn? Are we prepared for it? And how will we emerge at the end of it? Will we have become weaned off the pointless consumption which has driven this boom and instead lead simpler, happier lives? Will we more concious and caring about the world around us, or retreat into our own narrow little lives? And how will the green movement emerge out of all this? Will the recession mean we become more environmentally concious or less? And how will our attitude towards the market economy be affected?
These are the kind of questions I want to look at for as long as this blog continues. Thank you for visiting.
But this isn't a religious blog. This blog will chart the effects of the credit crunch on the world around us. Right now governments around the world are preparing to nationalise banks and pump billions more into guaranteeing their loans. If they don't do it then the entire western economic system will collapse. And the lifetime of this blog will be very short.
I'm assuming that won't happen. But I'm also assuming that this isn't going to be some kind of magic wand which eliminates the effects of the vast asset bubble created by debt over the last few years. In fact, I reckon that here in Britain, and in many other countries, we are going to suffer a serious economic recession. Jobs, companies, and livelihoods are going to be destroyed. But hopefully we will emerge transformed.
It's 21 days until the US presidential election. Barack Obama is currently the favourite, having a big lead in both national and battleground polls. If he wins he's going to become the first Democratic president since Bill Clinton. Moreover, he's going to have a Democrat Congress and should therefore be able to push through legislation in a way which Clinton couldn't.
Now I'm not saying that Obama is going to lead us into a bright new dawn (although listening to some of his speeches might lead you to think so). In fact he is going to have to wrestle with some huge economic problems. If he does what John McCain wants him to do and balance the budget then we're all screwed. But if he engages in good old-fashioned Keynesian economics and spends on useful things (infrastructure and education for instance) then the US economy should get back on its feet eventually. Nevertheless, the US is unlikely to remain the world's hyper-power. The rise of China, India, Brazil and others will eliminate all that. What will that do for US self-image? How will the world balance of power change as a result and what will it mean?
And here in Britain Gordon Brown currently appears revived in the opinion polls though is still far behind David Cameron. Will we get a Conservative government? Or will Brown be able to win an election in the face of a recession?
Most interestingly of all, how will we as individuals cope with a serious economic downturn? Are we prepared for it? And how will we emerge at the end of it? Will we have become weaned off the pointless consumption which has driven this boom and instead lead simpler, happier lives? Will we more concious and caring about the world around us, or retreat into our own narrow little lives? And how will the green movement emerge out of all this? Will the recession mean we become more environmentally concious or less? And how will our attitude towards the market economy be affected?
These are the kind of questions I want to look at for as long as this blog continues. Thank you for visiting.
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